Debate Cheat Sheet for Business

talking points

All eyes will be on CNN at 9 p.m. Eastern Time when President Biden and Donald Trump face off His first debate since 2020The most keen observers will be executives and investors trying to gauge how the candidates will handle the economy and business in a second term.

There will be a lot to see in this 90-minute debate even without an audience, including what the candidates say and what they don't. How They say so. Here's what we'll look at. (And, for a light-hearted twist, check out our debate “bingo card” below.)

economy It is a big question. Various measures show a strong increase in Biden's lead, but many voters think differently. What will Biden and Trump say about some key issues?

• inflation: This is clearly a challenge For president, as Americans complain about how much they're paying at the grocery store, the pump and on their rent. Biden might say price hikes are slowing, and will most likely emphasize his administration's efforts to curb them crackdown But “Corporate Greed” Such as the so-called Junk FeeTrump will likely emphasize how good things were when he took office in 2017 — an economy that many Americans want back.

• Tax: Biden's proposals for higher corporate taxes would hit profits: “It's simple math,” David Bahnsen, founder and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, told DealBook. Many business leaders also don't like Biden's plans to raise taxes on the wealthy. Trump will probably emphasize his desire to extend his 2017 tax cuts and lower the corporate rate to 20 percent. But questions about corporate earnings and the economy could compound those concerns.

• Protectionism: Both candidates want to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, but Biden has come under fire for the way he has done it during his presidency. Trump has proposed Very high fees across all sectorsHowever, it is not clear how serious he is about this. Economists have warned that Trump's possible approach could further increase inflation Damaging the economy,

• Market: S&P 500 Set 31 records This year; investors expect neither party to mess with that momentum. Going into Thursday night's debate, Paul Donovan, an economist at UBS, wrote in a client note, “markets probably care more about presentation than policy pledges.” Biden may have a slight edge, he said, as investors would prefer to maintain “some continuity.”

Other issues will likely figure prominently as well. Biden will take up abortion rights, an issue that has helped Democrats win recent elections. Trump is sure to talk a lot about immigration, perhaps his most powerful issue — and one on which many people, including Elon MuskHe said this is Biden's failure.

The intangibles will matter. Executives told DealBook that CEOs will be paying attention to how Biden and Trump perform:

• For the 81-year-old Biden, a key issue for business leaders and many voters is whether he is still fit to serve. A sharp, forceful performance could help assuage any concerns.

• Competency is also a question for the 78-year-old Trump. But his behavior will also be under scrutiny, especially if he appears overly harsh or erratic. Some officials said their feelings would depend on whether they could tolerate four more years of Trump as president.

There's also a show around the show. Trump has suggested that his potential running mate will be in Atlanta for the debate. His list is getting shorter, the Times reports, with Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and Florida Senator Marco Rubio particularly interested.

This selection could have major implications for Trump's campaign: Republican megadonor Ken Griffin has said the selection could impact Trump's campaign. Will he open his wallet for Trump?,

See what's happening here

The Fed has declared America's biggest lenders healthy. The central bank's latest stress tests showed that major institutions Surviving even in extreme economic conditionsThere are a number of other factors, including the fall in the value of the dollar and the collapse of their biggest customers. These results could bolster banks' argument that capital requirements should not be raised, as regulators plan to do.

SpaceX is reportedly planning to sell shares at a valuation of around $210 billion. Elon Musk's rocket company Its valuation increased The tender offer has risen 16 percent since December after higher-than-expected demand from investors, according to Bloomberg. The level sets a record for a privately owned U.S. start-up, and trails only TikTok's Chinese owner Bytedance's $268 billion.

Boeing is facing allegations from another whistleblower. A subcontractor working on the 787 Dreamliner said he faced retribution He said there were “substandard manufacturing and maintenance practices.” Separately, Boeing said it had achieved this Significant quality improvement Production of the 737 Max aircraft was delayed after a panel broke during a flight in January.

Amazon joins the $2 trillion club. This technology giant Now in the company Alphabet plans to compete with Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia, as investors bet on its efforts to capitalize on the artificial intelligence boom and its cost-cutting efforts. In addition, Amazon reportedly plans to compete with low-cost rivals Starting a service like Temu According to The Information, this company ships cheap goods directly from China.

Is this a welcome peace?

The surge in inflation that peaked in late winter has eased this spring. A key data point to be released on Friday will confirm whether this trend has continued, and what it could mean for interest rates.

S&P 500 futures were trading slightly lower this morning after a modest gain on Wednesday, as investors awaited the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure.

Economists expect improvement in the PCE data for May. This would be remarkable, because Lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index report This month's report also showed that the Fed's interest rate policy is suppressing demand and suppressing inflation.

Here's what to look out for:

• Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, The forecast is It is expected to come in at 2.6 percent on an annual basis. That would be 0.2 percentage points lower than April's figure, but still above the Fed's 2 percent target.

• Analysts will be looking for signs that so-called shelter inflation, which tracks housing, is easing. That market is still tight, but there are also signs that potential homebuyers are weakening as well. Postponing purchases Because mortgage rates are skyrocketing.

• Consumer goods prices have fallen over the year, a trend that is expected to be confirmed in the report. One example: Last week's retail sales report showed that Consumers were backing awayWhich underscores what companies like Target, Walmart, and Kohl's have said about their lower-income customers.

• Inflation in services could be a wild card. Economists are finding evidence that demand for airfares, hotels and restaurant bookings is not growing at the same pace as a year ago. But the summer travel season has just begun, and CarnivalCruise ship operator, reported strong results and an optimistic outlook this week.

A good signal can lift the stock market. Wall Street is divided on whether the Fed will join other central banks in lowering borrowing costs.

Futures traders estimate the chance of a rate cut in September is about 60 percent, but Fed officials say they need more evidence that consumer prices are falling before taking any action.

Big tech company wins in court

The Supreme Court has handed the Biden administration and Big Tech another legal victory. Dismissal of suit In which government officials were accused of pressuring social media companies to censor conservative content. It was one of many cases that could have a major impact on the regulation of tech giants.

How we got here: Biden Administration officials had urged social media companies like Facebook and X, then called Twitter, to remove misinformation on Covid-19 vaccines and fraud claims related to the 2020 election. In 2022, the attorneys general of Louisiana and Missouri, both Republicans, along with three doctors and a right-wing website that traffics in conspiracy theories, accused the government of forcing the companies to suppress conservative content.

Last year, a Trump-appointed judge in Louisiana ruled against the administration, issuing an injunction that limited the government’s communications with social media companies about content.

The Supreme Court disagreed. In a 6-to-3 decision, the majority said the plaintiffs had failed to prove harm. They also dismissed the censorship claims, saying the companies had acted on their own.

The judges expressed discomfort with the executive branch's manner of communication. From the majority opinion written by Justice Amy Coney Barrett:

The plaintiffs ask us to review years of communications between dozens of federal officials, across multiple agencies, and multiple social media platforms, on multiple topics, without any concrete connection between their injuries and the defendants' conduct. This Court's standing doctrine prevents us from conducting such general legal oversight over other branches of government.

This is the latest Supreme Court decision regarding Big Tech’s control of content. Last year, the court two cases dismissed This would have limited the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act. The measure gives companies immunity for user content posted on their sites and allows them to remove information they find objectionable.

Big Tech says it's vital to the open internet. Critics say Section 230 has been misused Protecting companies from legal claims,

what next? The Supreme Court is also expected to rule on a separate social media case regarding laws in Florida and Texas that limit the ability of social media companies to remove conservative content. Concerns expressed About state laws.

A debate bingo card

Those attending the debate will probably hear a lot about policy, age and consumer prices. Here are some of the words, references and zingers we'll hear. Call this the DealBook Debate Bingo Card:

• ,Shrinking inflationPresident Biden brought his complaints about scant packaging to Americans during this year’s Super Bowl.

• CryptoThe industry has been courted by Donald Trump, which has benefited from an impressive rally this year — and is determined to defeat crypto-skeptic candidates.

• ,The Inflation NightmareTrump has presented the issue this way, and placed the blame directly on his opponent.

• Nobel PrizeBiden received strong support this week from 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists who warned that Trumponomics could lead to Trump-flation.

Did we miss anyone? let us know,

Speed ​​Read

deal

• German engineering company Bosch is reportedly considering a new model. Whirlpool takeover bidA US rival in the appliances sector. (Reuters)

• SoftBank's Vision Fund 2 is said to be Investing in Perplexity AIA search engine powered by artificial intelligence, valued at $3 billion. (Bloomberg)

Elections, politics, and policy

• The US military and weapons manufacturers said that South by Southwest, a popular festival in Austin, Texas, will not sponsor next year's event resistance to their presence To support Israel's handling of the war in Gaza. (SXSW, NYT)

• Jordan BardellaThe right-wing leader, likely to become France's prime minister, said he would cut taxes and France's contributions to the EU by 2 billion euros ($2.1 billion). (FT)

Best among the rest

We want your feedback! Please email your thoughts and suggestions dealbook@nytimes.com,